Thanksgiving Weekend Football Picks

This week's football picks had to come a bit earlier than usual thanks to the long holiday weekend which has football starting on Thursday. I'm looking forward to good food and good games, and a nice tryptophan-induced sleep coma or several...all games on the usual day unless otherwise noted, so enjoy!

NCAA

LSU @ Arkansas (Fri.)- This is the big SEC game of the week...LSU won't win the West but could keep its outside hopes of a BCS bowl alive with a win, while the Hogs could continue their meteoric rise up the rankings and into national title contention with a victory. LSU has one of the better defenses in the country, probably better than Arkansas has faced all year, while Arkansas has perhaps the best tandem of RBs in the country in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. LSU has been mistake-prone in its losses this year, so this strength on strength game will come down to who makes fewer turnovers. While LSU has more talent at QB, even average play at the helm should be enough for Arkansas to win, and they'll get it. Expect a huge day for the Hogs ground game and a close win (sorry Kandi), Arkansas 24, LSU 20.

Troy @ MTSU- The Blue Raiders are one win or a Troy loss away from their first Sun Belt title and a bowl berth as a 1-A team. While Troy's passing game is a little better than that of MTSU, MTSU is the better team on defense, on sppecial teams, and in the running game. This looks like the year for my boys at my undergrad alma mater, so MTSU should get clinching win number 8 at home in the 'Boro, Blue Raiders 30, Troy 17.

Notre Dame @ USC- This game has the biggest BCS implications of any this weekend, and as much as it galls me to say it, I am rooting for the Irish in this one so that an SEC team has a better shot at the national title game.. Write that down, it may be a while before it happens again. Notre Dame's offense has been on fire since losing to Michigan, but that's been against subpar competition, while USC has recovered OK from the shocking upset at Oregon State. Notre Dame's offense is better, but USC has the better defense, and this is a home game for them. That should be enough for USC to squeak out a win and secure the #2 spot in the BCS if they beat UCLA next week, Trojans 23, Irish 21.

Kentucky @ Tennessee- Only Notre Dame's four plus decades of domination over Navy is a longer win streak than the Vols' 21 straight wins over the Wildcats. In the last few years, the 'Cats have played UT tough, especially in Lexington, but this game is in Knoxville. Kentucky coach Rich Brooks has done as much with as little as any NCAA coach around, coaxing 7 wins out of a mediocre team to get them bowl-eligible and maybe saving his job in the process. Wildcat QB Andre Woodson has also come of age this year, playing better than anyone expected thanks to putting in the hard work off the field to match his above average athletic skills. All that said, Erik Ainge is a better QB now than Woodson will ever be, and he has three quality RBs who are all healthy and can help open up the passing game. Kentucky's weakness is and always has been their defense, and the can't pull out enough stops on D to keep UT from outscoring them. The Vols should take this one in a shootout in Knoxville, Vols 45, Wildcats 28.

NFL

Broncos @ Chiefs (Thurs.)- The Chiefs are struggling a bit offensively trying to get QB Trent Green back into full swing after a vicious hit and resulting concussion sidelined him a few weeks, while Denver is trying to recover from blowing a 17 point lead to the Chargers last week. Kansas City RB Larry Johnson is probably the second best back in the league behind LaDainian Tomlinson, but the Broncos will be keying on him with a D hungry for revenge and a return to respectability. Denver QB Jake Plummer has struggled mightily this year, and if he plays badly here, Vandy alum Jay Cutler may see some playing time this season before taking Plummer's job for good in 2007. That would be better for Denver in both the short and long term, so I am rooting for the Chiefs to win and Plummer to bomb like he usually does. Kansas City, at home and struggling for a playoff spot should keep this game close, but I think Denver has too many weapons to lose to this team even at Arrowhead...Broncos win a close, low scoring game 17-13.

Giants @ Titans- Very quietly, the Titans are starting to play a little better, and while they won't win more than 6 games this year, they won't be a pushover either. The running game has picked up, and that can only help take pressure of rookie QB Vince Young, who is improving slowly but steadily. The Giants are in real danger of the wheels flying off completely this season. Two weeks ago, they were playing the Bears for NFC supremacy and thinking No. 2 seed and maybe Super Bowl...now they are in the middle of the playoff pack, beset with injuries to key players, and intra-team squabbling is threatening to tear the team apart. If the Titans avoid a collapse like they pulled against the Ravens, they should win this game. The improved running game should have its way against the Giants' depleted D, and Giants QB Eli Manning looks awful. Take the Titans in a mild upset in Nashville, Titans 27, Giants 17.

Bears @ Patriots- People are talking about this game like it is a Super Bowl preview, but it isn't...the Pats simply aren't that good this year. New England will win the AFC East and the No. 3 seed, and perhaps a wild-card game at home, but I wouldn't pick them on the road at Indianapolis or San Diego. This week, there is no weather advantage for the Pats because the Bears play at equally cold and blustery Soldier Field. The Patriots still have an elite QB in Tom Brady and a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, but too many losses in free agency have depleted this from a perennial Super Bowl contender to a mere playoff team. The Bears field perhaps the best D in the NFL and a budding star in PK Robbie Gould, a solid running game, and great return men on special teams. If Bears QB Rex Grossman can stop turning the ball over, the Bears might win this one bigger than people think...count Grossman in for 2 INTs and the Bears in for a win by about the expected margin, Chicago 20, Pats 10.