November Football Separates the Men From the Boys

I don't know if it's a trend, but the NFL has gone the past couple of weeks having more big-time, upper tier games than the NCAA. Not to say there aren't some meaningful and exciting college games, especially the Louisville-W. Virginia slugfest from Thursday night, it's just that the last couple of weekends there have been more games in the NFL with intriguing matchups where I think, "Man, I really want to see that game." I am skipping playing my weekly football pool this week because I've really stunk up the joint the last couple of weeks with all the upsets (haven't even broken .500 two weeks straight), so I could use a break. OK, now on with the picks...

NCAA

Florida vs Vanderbilt- Florida has the worst part of its schedule over and came out of it better than anyone could have imagined at 7-1...all they have to do is win out and the SEC East is theirs. It'll be tough, but I think they'll get by South Carolina and Steve Spurrier next week and Vanderbilt this week. The game is in Nashville, and Vandy QB Chris Nickson is more mobile than Jay Cutler, but he doesn't have Cutler's arm and makes more mistakes. Figure on a couple of killer interceptions thrown by Nickson, a solid defensive effort by the Florida D, and just enough Gator offense to walk out of Nashville with a close win...Gators 28-21.

Florida Atlantic vs. MTSU- Florida Atlantic has a better than average Sun Belt defense and a below average offense. MTSU has a good enough run D to shut down FAU and should muster enough offense to win...I just don't think the Blue Raiders will be beaten in Murfreesboro, not by this team this time...take the Blue Raiders here, 20-9.

LSU vs. Tennessee- I've gone back and forth on this game all week, and it mostly depends on how Erik Ainge's ankle holds up and who wins the turnover battle. LSU has one of the top defenses in the country, and UT has had real trouble mustering a running game against top-flight competition without LaMarcus Coker, who is still out. I want UT to win, I think they have the athletes for it, I wouldn't be surprised if they did win, and it is at home in Knoxville, but I just can't pick them. They've looked subpar the last couple of weeks, and they couldn't get it done against Florida when it mattered most, so until they prove they can, I have to pick against them...LSU 19, UT 17...in a heartbreaker.

NFL

Baltimore at Cincinnati- Steve McNair has been just plain lucky this season, catching more breaks this season with the Ravens than all his Titans seasons combined. The Ravens' D comes and goes, but their secondary is consistently vulnerable. Carson Palmer is a better QB than McNair, and the Bengals receivers are better top to bottom than the Ravens' secondary. Look for Chad Johnson to be mostly clamped down, but the other receivers should have a big day if Palmer can keep his jersey clean. With the home crowd behind them, the Bengals take control of the AFC North with a hard fought 23-16 win.

Titans at Jaguars- Vince Young is getting better by the week even though his numbers aren't so great. What matters is he has led the team to consecutive victories with a chance for 3 in a row. The Jags are very banged up on D and have a mini-QB controversy as David Garrard starts for a second week in a row. This should be a fun and interesting game, but unless Fred Taylor plays like he did last week or the Titans commit a bunch of turnovers, the Titans should win in a mild upset, 27-21.

Denver vs. Pittsburgh- Denver's D got carved up by Peyton and the Colts last week, but they should rebound nicely against the Steelers struggling offense. Also, the Denver power running game stepped up nicely to provide a compliment to Tatum Bell, so look for more power runs this week. The Pittsburgh D has been playing well enough to win, but the offense keeps them on the field too long by not making enough plays. It's at Heinz Field so it will be close, but the Broncos are just too good to lose to this version of the Steelers. Denver puts a nail in the Steelers playoff coffin, Broncos 30, Steelers 21.

Colts at Patriots- This game in Foxboro is the Week 9 version of the Colts-Broncos showdown for AFC supremacy from last week. I know the Colts won here last year and that Peyton has looked great all season, but after the way the Pats demolished the Vikings on Monday night passing and the way Denver ran the ball down the Colts' throat last week, it's going to be a looooong day for the Indy D. The Pats might rush for 200 yards between Maroney and Dillon, and add that to Tom Brady's pinpoint passing and that leaves Manning on the sidelines most of the game. The Patriots should win here, but it's no surprise if these teams meet again in the playoffs, Patriots win this one and avenge last year's loss at home, Pats 34, Colts 27.