2006 Mid-Term Election Predictions

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting midterm election day, and it should come right down to the wire...I'm definitely curious to see how it turns out. If this election had been held when the Mark Foley scandal broke, or even a week ago, then it would have been the Democrat landslide predicted by the media for months now. My uneducated (at least in the vote prediction realm) guesses take into account the electorate's dissatisfaction with Iraq, anger from the GOP base at its party not acting like conservatives for the most part, and the GOP's superior voter turnout efforts. Forgive the length and skip it if it bores you...my feelings won't be hurt.

In terms of the House races, I've seen predictions of the GOP losing anywhere from 8-30 seats, with the Dems needing 15 to take control. The GOP will lose some seats, and this bloger believes it will be about 13 seats, with the GOP retaining a razor-thin majority. Say what you want about Karl Rove, but he hasn't been wrong in his election predictions yet...the GOP hasn't lost one with him at the helm. So, until the Dems prove him wrong, the talk of Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be put on hold.

Regarding the Senate, I just don't think the Dems have enough to take over the chamber, although, as with the House, the GOP majority will definitely shrink. Washington state is just too blue, so Maria Cantwell (D) should win re-election there by about 8 points. Ditto for Minnesota, although if this were 2004, Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) might spring the upset. Although Kennedy is the far superior candidate and Amy Klobuchar (D) is a lightweight and an empty vessel save Democrat talking points, she will probably win, and she'll likely be bounced in 2012. In New Jersey, Robert Menendez (D) and Tom Kean, Jr. (R) are in a statistical dead heat. New Jersey is also a blue state, but there has been a wave of dissatisfaction there due to oppressive taxes, etc. If anyone can win, it's Kean, Jr., because his father has a very popular name in N.J. politics, but I think Menendez, corrupt though he may be, will probably pull out a squeaker of a win (2-4 points).

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is one of the better senators in the GOP in terms of his voting record on things like judges, taxes, illegal immigration, and national defense. Unfortunately, he represents a blue state that went to Kerry in 2004. And although his opponent Bob Casey (D) is a lightweight just like Amy Klobuchar in MN, he has a famous family name in PA politics on which to trade, and he'll likely oust Sen. Santorum for the Dems first pickup. In deep blue Maryland, Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring, and African-American Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is vying with (white) Rep. Ben Cardin (D) for the open seat. Until as late as a week ago, this was thought to be a safe Democrat seat, but Steele has picked up some major endorsements from prominent black leaders and officials, he has run a dynamite campaign, and now the race is a dead heat and the Dems are in panic mode. If Steele can get even 1/4 to 1/3 of the black vote, he will upset Cardin, and I think he pulls it off in the shocker of the election.

In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) has consistently trailed Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) throughout the campaign. DeWine is getting killed because of the GOP corruption at the state level (GOP governor) and federal level (former Rep. Bob Ney in the Abramoff scandal), and while the GOP vote turnout efforts will close the gap, he still loses, maybe by as much as 10 points. In a vicious race in Virginia, George Allen (R) has been locked in a dirty campaign with Jim Webb (D), a former Reagan Administration official. Although this race dashed any hopes Allen had of running for President in 2008, Virginia is a red state, Webb is a lightweight with his own baggage, and he'll fall short in the end, with Allen winning a little bigger than expected (6 points or so).

Missouri is also a slightly red state, where incumbent Jim Talent (R) is locked in a heated campaign with upstart Claire McCaskill (D), who has run a better than expected campaign, including the Michael J. Fox commercials, which played fast and loose with the truth at best. McCaskill may get within a point or two, but Talent will win a close one. In Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee (RINO) has close the gap on Sheldon Whitehouse (D), and in truth, I really don't care who wins this one because the votes will be almost identical, so I think Whitehouse wins a close one and no one cares unless the balance of the Senate hangs on the result, in which case the GOP is dead anyway. Pres. Bush took Montana by about 20 points in 2004, and Jon Tester (D) has run a reasonably mistake-free race against incumbent Conrad Burns (R), who is hurt by his ties to the Abramoff scandal. It could go either way and it wouldn't surprise me, b/c Montana already has one Democrat senator, but I don't think it's ready for two, so take Burns in a mild upset to keep the seat.

Finally, in Tennessee, it's Harold Ford, Jr. (D) vs. Bob Corker (R). Let me start by saying that if I had my choice of anyone from the primaries, it would be Rep Ed Bryant (R), but he lost to Corker, so that isn't a possibility. This race has gotten testy as the weeks went on, with personal attacks akin to those in VA (neither of which have any place in politics) and overhyped accusations of racism against Corker. As Democrats go, Ford is not terrible, nothing like Nancy Pelosi and her ilk anyway. His votes on illegal immigration and some other important issues were correct, but he's still a bit too fond of high taxes for most TN voters. Also, I think his crashing of one of Corker's press conferences reflected very poorly on him as a professional. Corker reminds a lot of people of Bill Frist, a solid Republican without much in the way of passion, etc. If this election were in 2008, I think Ford would win going away, but this year, Corker will eke out a close win, no more than a point or two.

So, per the split and polarization of voters nationwide, in the House, the GOP should have something like a 220-215 or 219-216 majority, and the Senate should go about 52-48 or 51-49 in favor of the GOP.