10/28 Weekend Pigskin Picks With a Side of Insomnia

It's another week of conference play throughout the NCAA, setting up for the home stretch to determine who stays home, who goes to a bowl, and who plays for championships. In the NFL, there are some entertaining and confusing games, very tough to pick, some because of the talent of the teams playing each other (Denver vs. Indianapolis) and others because you don't know which team might show up (Atlanta vs. Cincinnati), so on with the picks.

NCAA

Florida vs. Georgia- I can't remember the last time a Cocktail Party game reasonably favored either team by 2 touchdowns, but this might be the year for it. Georgia got clobbered by the Vols and beaten by Vanderbilt at home, and tried their best to lose to Miss. St., who might be the worst team in the SEC...not exactly good preparation for the Gators, who are stinging after being walloped by Auburn. Florida's offense is very good and should rebound nicely against a Georgia defense that hasn't stopped a quality offense yet this year. Unless Florida completely craps the bed here, they should win going away. I still hope the Dawgs win, b/c that would open the door for the Vols to win the SEC East if they win out, but I don't see it happening (sorry Ashley)...Florida 41, Georgia 17.

Tennessee vs. South Carolina- Other than the embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt, no game typified the Vols' pitiful season last year more than losing to South Carolina and Steve Spurrier. They'll want revenge, and they will get it despite being banged up on offense, esp. at wide receiver. Gamecocks QB Syvelle Newton might be a better scrambler than Florida QB Chris Leak, but he isn't as good a passer and doesn't have the weapons around him Leak has. Look for a replay of the Auburn game, a much closer fight than people expect, but the Vols should wear down South Carolina as the game goes on and win it in the 4th quarter...Vols take it, 24-16.

MTSU vs. Louisiana-Lafayette- The Blue Raiders have played very well against Sun Belt competition this year, and may take the conference crown and go to a bowl game if they can beat ULL. Both teams rely heavily on their running games, but both also have solid run defenses. MTSU has the slightly better passing game and better than average special teams, so pick the Blue Raiders in a mild road upset, 20-19.

NFL

Cincinnati vs. Atlanta- Everyone is hailing this as the umpteenth time where Michael Vick becomes a legit QB, but I don't buy it. He is fast as lightning and has a rocket arm, but against a superior defense with a good scheme, he becomes mortal. Vick is a younger, faster version of Steve McNair...good enough to make trips to the playoffs, not quite good enough to close the deal and win the Super Bowl. Cincy gets back WR Chris Henry from suspension, and behavior problems aside, he's a difference maker. The defense has speed to burn and is probably in the top 5 in the NFL, and Carson Palmer at 90 percent is better than Vick at full speed. Vick gets his yards but the Bengals win the game, Cincinnati 31, Atlanta 20.

Baltimore vs. New Orleans- The key battle here is Baltimore's defense versus New Orleans' improved offense. Teams have figured out how to attack the Ravens, and I think this means an 8-8 season and missing the playoffs in Baltimore. So long as the line keeps out the blitzes, washed-up former Titan CB Samari Rolle can be picked on, as can the flavor of the week safety playing opposite perennial Pro Bowler Ed Reed. The Saints have Reggie Bush, Joe Horn, and rookie standout Marques Colston...that's one too many playmakers for Baltimore to cover, and until the Saints lose one at home, I'm not picking against them (fate, karma, etc.), Saints win, 20-10.

Denver at Indianapolis- The battle of perhaps the first half of the NFL season to determine who is the class of the AFC, and it also could be a preview of the AFC Championship game. The Colts have a definite QB advantage (Manning over Plummer by several lengths), and the running game is coming along nicely with rookie RB Joseph Addai coming into his own. Denver has the far superior defense, and CB Champ Bailey vs. Colts' WR Marvin Harrison is a great individual matchup to watch. Special teams are basically a wash, as is the run game with Denver RB Tatum Bell taking charge as a feature back. It's been cold and snowy in Colorado all week, and the Colts are an indoor team. If the game was at Indy, I'd take the Colts in a squeaker, but at Denver, give it to the Broncos in an equally tight game, 27-24.