9/30 Weekend Football Picks

Another somewhat off week for NCAA games, and is it just me, or are there more consistently fun, exciting, and/or meaningful NFL games early in the season than any other year in recent memory...? Anyway, on with the picks for big games and those I care about...enjoy!

NCAA

Middle TN St. University vs. North Texas- The Blue Raiders could never pull this one off during the Andy McCollum era, which means they were never able to win the Sun Belt despite good enough talent, which helped lead to his eventual firing. I don't know much about the new coach (Stockstill), but I do know he is recruiting a little better, and until the Oklahoma slaughter, they were holding up better against superior competition. Although North Texas still has a great rushing attack, MTSU is due, and with a slightly improved defense and fewer turnovers, added to playing someone closer to their competitive talent level, I think MTSU pulls out a close win for which they are due, Blue Raiders in an upset on the road, 19-17.

Tennessee vs. Memphis- This is a classic trap game into which UT has stepped before, going to Memphis as a 26 point favorite in '96 with Peyton Manning at the helm and losing. That won't happen this year. Memphis doesn't have DeAngelo Williams and has looked horrible on offense all season despite still having some potential playmakers on offense. UT's superior speed and strength on both sides of the ball will overpower Memphis, but it may stay close until the half. Vols win this one going away, 34-10.

Florida vs. Alabama- The Tide looked awful last week losing to an Arkansas team they should have beaten easily and would have last year. The Tide had a great season last year and are now rebuilding whether they like it or not. The D will still play hard and hit you in the mouth, but the Tide's pass game only comes in spurts if at all, allowing the opposing defense to load 8-9 in the box and stuff the run. Florida's D-line is very, very good, the offense has more speed and talent, including senior QB Chris Leak (who I hate to say looks great this year), and they remember the embarrassing 31-3 loss to Alabama last year. At The Swamp, this will get uglier for the Tide than it has in a while (sorry Leigh!), take the Gators here big, 41-13.

Ohio St. vs. Iowa- The last time OSU was embarrassed was by Iowa at Iowa, which is where the game is this year. Iowa QB Drew Tate is a solid senior leader, the run game is above average, and the defense looks more stout than normal. That said, Buckeye QB Troy Smith is one of the best in the nation, has more weapons on offense to work with, and the OSU defense appears to have reloaded rather than having ro rebuild after losing 9 starters. I expect a defensive slugfest here, closer than Vegas has it, but OSU pulls it out late, 17-16.

NFL

Titans vs. Cowboys- I actually am picking the Titans to win here, not sure exactly why, but here goes...the Titans are due for a break, surely they have some pride after getting embarrassed and starting 0-3, the T.O. mess is a huge distraction, and calcified Drew Bledsoe is the opposing QB. I think this game will be ugly, Vince Young will play a few series this week, and the Titans take a close win in an awful game,13-9.

Panthers vs. Saints- Classic letdown game for the Saints after an emotional win in their Superdome return last week...and this just in, the Saints are better than advertised. They may not win the division or be a Super Bowl contender, but they could easily be 6-2 at the halfway mark with their schedule. The Panthers, however, have Steve Smith back, are playing at home, and this could be a playoff elimination game for them in Week 4 (if they lose, they drop to 1-3, 3 full games behind the Saints). Another close game, much better played that the Titans/Cowboys pillow fight though, Panthers climb back to .500 at home, Carolina 23, Saints 20.

Patriots vs. Bengals- This may well be the passing old guard Pats playing against the incoming new guard Bengals. Assuming Cincy players can stay off the police blotter, they look like legit Super Bowl contenders with a franchise QB, great RB play, very good WR depth and production, and an opportunistic defense that never misses a turnover chance. The Pats are a mess, but they still have Tom Brady...even so, Brady is throwing to stiffs and rookies right now, which means the running game is getting stuffed, which means they don't produce and the defense, in turn gets tired and wears out late. All that to say, Cincy at home, take the Bengals, 30-20.

Bears vs. Seahawks- This is an NFC Championship preview game right here, far and away the classes of the conference. If Seattle gets even adequate running game production while Alexander is out, they go 12-4 with a first round bye, and if Chicago's running game ever wakes up and Grossman keeps maturing, they could go 13-3 or 14-2 with a No. 1 seed. Picking the Seahawks in an upset is tempting, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win, but I am not betting against the suffocating Bears D at Soldier Field...Chicago finds a way to get past the Seahawks in a defensive struggle, 23-17.