Ralph Peters is a retired military man who has written several books and who is generally ahead of the curve seeing trends as or before they develop in the realm of war and/or foreign affairs. If he's saying the situation in Iraq is this far gone, then we are in very bad shape indeed, much worse than our President or any other political leaders have admitted or are willing to own up to. It sounds for all the world like the political leaders in Iraq have thrown in their lot with the Islamists, and if they have, they should do it on their own time and their own dime and pay for it with their own blood. We gave the Iraqis their chance but they didn't seem to appreciate or want it, and that's too bad.
I really hope we can turn it around, but if we can't, then we should leave the cesspool of Iraq, Iran, etc. to its own devices and treat them as the enemies they are. Our troops are strong and courageous, and they deserve every bit of honor and respect they've earned...and the politicians deserve many times more that level of contempt and disgust for their abject cowardice and failures. All the emphasis below is mine, and it's all spot-on analysis, so read it all.
Last Gasps in Iraq, By Ralph Peters
I supported this war, but the deteriorating situation is starting to convince me that we can't win. Those of us who hoped that the Iraqis could achieve democracy were wrong — and their failure has implications for the entire region.
"On Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki obeyed Muqtada al-Sadr's command to withdraw U.S. troops from Baghdad's Sadr City. He halted a vital U.S. military operation. It was the third time in less than a month that al-Maliki had sided with the anti-American cleric against our forces.
President Bush insists that we have no conflicts with the al-Maliki government. The president isn't telling the truth — or he himself doesn't support our military's efforts. He can't have it both ways. Bush appears increasingly desperate just to get through the upcoming elections.
I supported the removal of Saddam Hussein. I believed that Arabs deserved a chance to build a rule-of-law democracy in the Middle East. Based upon firsthand experience, I was convinced that the Middle East was so politically, socially, morally and intellectually stagnant that we had to risk intervention — or face generations of terrorism and tumult. I still believe that our removal of Hussein was a noble act.
I only wish the administration had done it competently.
Hope is dwindling
Iraq is failing. No honest observer can conclude otherwise. Even six months ago, there was hope. Now the chances for a democratic, unified Iraq are dwindling fast. The country's Prime Minister has thrown in his lot with al-Sadr, our mortal enemy. He has his eye on the future, and he's betting that we won't last. The police are less accountable than they were under Saddam. Our extensive investment in Iraqi law enforcement only produced death squads. Government ministers loot the country to strengthen their own factions. Even Iraq's elections — a worthy experiment — further divided Iraq along confessional and ethnic lines. Iraq still exists on the maps, but in reality it's gone. Only a military coup — which might come in the next few years — could hold the artificial country together.
This chaos wasn't inevitable. While in Iraq late last winter, I remained soberly hopeful. Since then, the strength of will of our opponents — their readiness to pay any price and go to any length to win — has eclipsed our own. The valor of our enemies never surpassed that of our troops, but it far exceeded the fair-weather courage of the Bush administration.
Yet, for all our errors, we did give the Iraqis a unique chance to build a rule-of-law democracy. They preferred to indulge in old hatreds, confessional violence, ethnic bigotry and a culture of corruption. It appears that the cynics were right: Arab societies can't support democracy as we know it, and people get the government they deserve.
For us, Iraq's impending failure is an embarrassment. For the Iraqis — and other Arabs — it's a disaster the dimensions of which they do not yet comprehend. They're gleeful at the prospect of America's humiliation, but it's their tragedy, not ours.
Iraq was the Arab world's last chance to board the train to modernity, to give the region a future, not just a bitter past. The violence staining Baghdad's streets with gore isn't only a symptom of the Iraqi government's incompetence, but of the comprehensive inability of the Arab world to progress in any sphere of organized human endeavor. We are witnessing the collapse of a civilization. All those who rooted for Iraq to fail are going to be chastened by what follows.
Iraq still deserves one last chance — as long as we don't confuse deadly stubbornness and perseverance. If, at this late hour, Iraqis in decisive numbers prove willing to fight for their own freedom and a constitutional government, we should be willing to remain for a generation. If they continue to revel in fratricidal slaughter, we must leave.
Iraq is not our Vietnam
Contrary to the prophets of doom, the United States wouldn't be weakened by our withdrawal, should it come to that. Iraq was never our Vietnam, it's al-Qaeda's Vietnam. They're the ones who can't leave and who can't win.
Islamist terrorists have chosen Iraq as their battleground and, even after our departure, it will continue to consume them. We'll still be the greatest power on earth, indispensable to other regional states — such as the Persian Gulf states and Saudi Arabia — that are terrified of Iran's growing might. If the Arab world and Iran embark on an orgy of bloodshed, the harsh truth is that we may be the beneficiaries.
My disillusionment with our Iraq endeavor began last summer, when I was invited to a high-level discussion with administration officials. I went into the meeting with one firm goal, to convince my hosts that they'd better have Plan B in case Iraq continued to disintegrate. I left the session convinced that the administration still didn't have Plan A, only a blur of meandering policies and blind hopes. After more than three years, it was still "An Evening at the Improv."
Then, last month, as Iraq's prime minister seconded al-Sadr's demand that our troops free a death-squad mastermind they had captured, I knew a fateful page had turned. A week later, al-Maliki forbade additional U.S. military raids in Sadr City, the radical mullah's Baghdad stronghold. On Tuesday, al-Maliki insisted that our troops remove roadblocks set up to help find a kidnapped U.S. soldier. Iraq's Prime Minister has made his choice. We're not it. It's time to face reality. Only Iraqis can save Iraq now — and they appear intent on destroying it. Après nous, le deluge.
Iraq could have turned out differently. It didn't, and we must be honest about it. We owe that much to our troops. They don't face the mere forfeiture of a few congressional seats but the loss of their lives. Our military is now being employed for political purposes. It's unworthy of our nation."
Friday, November 10, 2006
Thursday, November 9, 2006
November 11 Weekend Football Picks
There are some decent pro and college games, and I'll watch them, but I'm not really all that excited about them. The good news is that I have the day off work tomorrow, so that's a good thing, makes it a 3 day weekend. Maybe it's the weather or something, I'm just all manner of blah right this minute, esp. about football, so on with the picks.
NCAA
MTSU/Arkansas St.- My Blue Raiders have been on a tear of late, winning 3 straight conference games in impressive fashion since the Oklahoma blowout. If they can beat Arkansas St., they play Troy for the title in two weeks. Ark. St. started out the year pretty well, but their once-good running game has gone in the crapper. The defense and special teams are a wash, so chalk another win up for MTSU and its superior offense, Blue Raiders 24, Indians 13.
South Carolina/Florida- South Carolina is struggling offensively, and no matter who their QB is, he won't be able to generate enough offense to score consistently on the Gators D. Florida has too many offensive playmakers and too much speed on both sides of the ball, so Urban Meyer gets his revenge on Steve Spurrier, Florida 31, Gamecocks 17.
LSU/Alabama- You know it's been a long, tough year for the Tide when their best win is over Hawaii, and it is going to get worse. Coming off its big win at Tennessee, LSU might be the hot team in the SEC right now. Alabama's offense has been mediocre at best, and if it couldn't geneerate anything against Mississippi State, it will be rough sledding against the Tigers' D. It could get ugly in a hurry, JaMarcus Russell should throw for 4 TDs in an easy Tigers victory (sorry Leigh), LSU 38, 'Bama 10.
Tennessee/Arkansas- The Vols lost their starting QB in a heartbreaker to LSU last week, and then three players go and get arrested before a game against a very tough Hogs team. The game is at Arkansas, the Vols are banged up and distracted, and Arkansas's strength (their running game) is the Vol defense's weakness. It will be close, but the Hogs get another signature win this year, upsetting the Vols in Fayetteville and ending the BCS hopes of the Big Orange (if they weren't already dead), Hogs 24, Vols 20.
NFL
Bears vs. Giants- The Bears come off an ugly loss to the hapless Dolphins last week, while the Giants looked sluggish against an equally hapless Texans team, so who knows who will win this one? The difference here will be turnovers...the Bears lost six of them last week, and that will kill you even with a superior defense. This looks like a bruising NFC game, and since the Giants have the better running backs and quarterback, they should win a close one and take control of the top of the NFC playoff seedings, 17-13.
Bengals vs. Chargers- The Chargers running game looked great last week, but someone has to tell Phillip Rivers he has one of the best TEs in football on his team in Antonio Gates. The Bengals lost a tough one to the Ravens last week, hurting their chances of repeating as AFC North champs, but there's no shame in that b/c the Ravens may have found their groove and could run away with the division. The Bengals are more banged up than the Chargers, so look for the Bolts to win a shootout late in the 4th quarter, 34-31.
Ravens at Titans- Steve McNair makes his return to Nashville, and he'll be welcomed warmly in the pre-game introductions. This game WILL be ugly, as the Ravens D is looking like themselves again just in time for a rookie QB who looked horrible last week, throwing three picks and having two returned for TDs. This one will be over when the Ravens say it is, Ravens 28, Titans 6.
NCAA
MTSU/Arkansas St.- My Blue Raiders have been on a tear of late, winning 3 straight conference games in impressive fashion since the Oklahoma blowout. If they can beat Arkansas St., they play Troy for the title in two weeks. Ark. St. started out the year pretty well, but their once-good running game has gone in the crapper. The defense and special teams are a wash, so chalk another win up for MTSU and its superior offense, Blue Raiders 24, Indians 13.
South Carolina/Florida- South Carolina is struggling offensively, and no matter who their QB is, he won't be able to generate enough offense to score consistently on the Gators D. Florida has too many offensive playmakers and too much speed on both sides of the ball, so Urban Meyer gets his revenge on Steve Spurrier, Florida 31, Gamecocks 17.
LSU/Alabama- You know it's been a long, tough year for the Tide when their best win is over Hawaii, and it is going to get worse. Coming off its big win at Tennessee, LSU might be the hot team in the SEC right now. Alabama's offense has been mediocre at best, and if it couldn't geneerate anything against Mississippi State, it will be rough sledding against the Tigers' D. It could get ugly in a hurry, JaMarcus Russell should throw for 4 TDs in an easy Tigers victory (sorry Leigh), LSU 38, 'Bama 10.
Tennessee/Arkansas- The Vols lost their starting QB in a heartbreaker to LSU last week, and then three players go and get arrested before a game against a very tough Hogs team. The game is at Arkansas, the Vols are banged up and distracted, and Arkansas's strength (their running game) is the Vol defense's weakness. It will be close, but the Hogs get another signature win this year, upsetting the Vols in Fayetteville and ending the BCS hopes of the Big Orange (if they weren't already dead), Hogs 24, Vols 20.
NFL
Bears vs. Giants- The Bears come off an ugly loss to the hapless Dolphins last week, while the Giants looked sluggish against an equally hapless Texans team, so who knows who will win this one? The difference here will be turnovers...the Bears lost six of them last week, and that will kill you even with a superior defense. This looks like a bruising NFC game, and since the Giants have the better running backs and quarterback, they should win a close one and take control of the top of the NFC playoff seedings, 17-13.
Bengals vs. Chargers- The Chargers running game looked great last week, but someone has to tell Phillip Rivers he has one of the best TEs in football on his team in Antonio Gates. The Bengals lost a tough one to the Ravens last week, hurting their chances of repeating as AFC North champs, but there's no shame in that b/c the Ravens may have found their groove and could run away with the division. The Bengals are more banged up than the Chargers, so look for the Bolts to win a shootout late in the 4th quarter, 34-31.
Ravens at Titans- Steve McNair makes his return to Nashville, and he'll be welcomed warmly in the pre-game introductions. This game WILL be ugly, as the Ravens D is looking like themselves again just in time for a rookie QB who looked horrible last week, throwing three picks and having two returned for TDs. This one will be over when the Ravens say it is, Ravens 28, Titans 6.
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
2006 Mid-Term Election Massacre
Looking back at my predictions for the elections yesterday, I was right that the GOP would lose seats, I just didn't think it would be that many. Last night also proved that Karl Rove is neither immortal nor Houdini. In the Senate, I rightly predicted Bob Corker would win close over Harold Ford, Jr. in TN, and assuming the slim vote margins hold, I was wrong about the MT, VA, and MD races. The House went big to the Dems, and it looks like they will get 51-49 Senate control thanks to about 11,000 well-placed votes in Montana and Virginia.
Rush Limbaugh's statement below pretty well sum up how I feel in the aftermath of last night, and Bill Whittle fairly sums up on what we do now...it's a bit long, but read it all, there's much work to be done and no time like the present to begin it.
Bill Whittle
The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
"As I write this, the Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives and look likely to eke out control of the Senate.
My friends, this is time to make a choice. We have suffered a very large defeat tonight, and there is nothing now that we can do about that except decide on how we wish to face it. We have been given an opportunity to show what losing with honor should look like. Do not wail and cry. Do not shout "CHEATERS!", or whine about media coverage, and most especially do not blame the American people. They are not idiots and they are not sheep. Iraq is not lost, the War on Terror goes on, and despite what you may be feeling right now, there will not be any US helicopters evacuating stragglers off the roof of the US embassy in Baghdad...not tomorrow or any other day. That war was won on a November night two years ago. Trust me on this one, if you can, and if you cannot then at least do not despair. Maybe now we will realize that selling this war is as important as fighting it. In that regard I've been AWOL and I am ashamed.
We have to accept the fact that the conservatives we sent to Congress in 1994 became the bloated, earmarking, tone-deaf toads of 2006. They thought they could do whatever they wanted, regardless of what their constituents think, and now they have been reminded of just who is working for whom. Remedying that sense of isolation and disconnect and unchecked power is why we have elections in the first place, and as to the consequences of it, we have no one to blame but ourselves. That imperial attitude is not unique to Republicans or Democrats. That is human nature, and correcting the excesses of human nature only becomes more costly and painful the longer it is allowed to go on. Democracy is error-correcting...ask John Kerry.
I voted straight down the Republican ticket tonight. I am not happy about this, but I'm determined to take it like a man and use this occasion to let the opposition see what it looks like to lose with honor and grace. That they have needed a lesson in this goes without saying, and a lot of us mean to see that they will need additional instruction along these very lines in the near future. But right now that is bluster; a check folded and stuffed in a shirt pocket for cashing at our leisure. This is their night.
The Congress that the Republicans lost they lost because they abandoned the ideals that elected them in the first place. We must learn from our mistakes. We will have two years to do so.
Remember one thing before you go. The most important election we are ever likely to see in our lives was not this evening's election. Bush's re-election in 2004 was the one we HAD to have, and we got it. Be grateful for that, acknowledge that this loss is no one's fault but our own, congratulate the Democrats on their impressive wins and start figuring out how we can make sure this never EVER happens again. =)
I wish to tell my friends to be cheerful and especially to be of good will. Disappointments come and go, but moments of courage and integrity in dark hours will be there when the stars grow cold. We have lost the election, so let us maintain our determination, our dignity and our sense of humor, and let us take this moment to reflect upon how our actions have fallen short of our ideals. Then, finally, let's act like the Americans we are, roll up our sleeves and start rebuilding. We who have survived Civil War, the Nazis, and the Communists can probably manage to find a way to preserve the Republic in the face of Speaker Pelosi.
America is not only much, much stronger than you imagine; it is stronger than you CAN imagine.
To those who have written me in anger over the years, I say sincere congratulations to you on a big win, and I genuinely hope it will remove some of the bitterness in your hearts and restore some belief in a system that was never broken. As for me, I pledge to re-enter the fight with more energy, not less, and to continue to try to make the case I think needs to be made. I'll start on that tomorrow.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill
Welcome to the process of exhausting all other possibilities. This is where we separate the men from the boys. Pick a line and stand in it."
Rush Limbaugh
"Conservatism did not lose; Republicans lost last night. In fact, Republicanism, being a political party first rather than an ideological movement, is what lost. The Democrats beat something last night with nothing.
The Republican Party is going to do far better when it is openly proud and willing to define in every speech it makes what conservatism is, leading people to that movement, making them feel like there's a future, making them feel proud of themselves, making them happy to be Americans, rather than this hodgepodge: RINO Republican over there, moderate Republican here, invisible Republican over there, frightened conservative Republican over here. What this adds up to is a bunch of Republicans afraid to be who they are for fear of being criticized by the dreaded media and the social culture in Washington. So they go out of their way trying to get approval by their enemies and their opponents to show that they're not mean people, to show that they're not extremists or whatever, and you get what you got yesterday. It's just that simple. Conservatism may not win every time it's tried, but the Republican Party has no prayer when it runs as a bunch of squishy, moderate, simple Republicans.
The way I feel is this: I feel liberated, and I'm going to tell you as plainly as I can why. I no longer am going to have to carry the water for people who I don't think deserve having their water carried. Now, you might say, "Well, why have you been doing it?" Because the stakes are high. Even though the Republican Party let us down, to me they represent a far better future for my beliefs and therefore the country's than the Democrat Party and liberalism does. I believe my side is worthy of victory, and I believe it's much easier to reform things that are going wrong on my side from a position of strength. Now I'm liberated from having to constantly come in here every day and try to buck up a bunch of people who don't deserve it, to try to carry the water and make excuses for people who don't deserve it."
Rush Limbaugh's statement below pretty well sum up how I feel in the aftermath of last night, and Bill Whittle fairly sums up on what we do now...it's a bit long, but read it all, there's much work to be done and no time like the present to begin it.
Bill Whittle
The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
"As I write this, the Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives and look likely to eke out control of the Senate.
My friends, this is time to make a choice. We have suffered a very large defeat tonight, and there is nothing now that we can do about that except decide on how we wish to face it. We have been given an opportunity to show what losing with honor should look like. Do not wail and cry. Do not shout "CHEATERS!", or whine about media coverage, and most especially do not blame the American people. They are not idiots and they are not sheep. Iraq is not lost, the War on Terror goes on, and despite what you may be feeling right now, there will not be any US helicopters evacuating stragglers off the roof of the US embassy in Baghdad...not tomorrow or any other day. That war was won on a November night two years ago. Trust me on this one, if you can, and if you cannot then at least do not despair. Maybe now we will realize that selling this war is as important as fighting it. In that regard I've been AWOL and I am ashamed.
We have to accept the fact that the conservatives we sent to Congress in 1994 became the bloated, earmarking, tone-deaf toads of 2006. They thought they could do whatever they wanted, regardless of what their constituents think, and now they have been reminded of just who is working for whom. Remedying that sense of isolation and disconnect and unchecked power is why we have elections in the first place, and as to the consequences of it, we have no one to blame but ourselves. That imperial attitude is not unique to Republicans or Democrats. That is human nature, and correcting the excesses of human nature only becomes more costly and painful the longer it is allowed to go on. Democracy is error-correcting...ask John Kerry.
I voted straight down the Republican ticket tonight. I am not happy about this, but I'm determined to take it like a man and use this occasion to let the opposition see what it looks like to lose with honor and grace. That they have needed a lesson in this goes without saying, and a lot of us mean to see that they will need additional instruction along these very lines in the near future. But right now that is bluster; a check folded and stuffed in a shirt pocket for cashing at our leisure. This is their night.
The Congress that the Republicans lost they lost because they abandoned the ideals that elected them in the first place. We must learn from our mistakes. We will have two years to do so.
Remember one thing before you go. The most important election we are ever likely to see in our lives was not this evening's election. Bush's re-election in 2004 was the one we HAD to have, and we got it. Be grateful for that, acknowledge that this loss is no one's fault but our own, congratulate the Democrats on their impressive wins and start figuring out how we can make sure this never EVER happens again. =)
I wish to tell my friends to be cheerful and especially to be of good will. Disappointments come and go, but moments of courage and integrity in dark hours will be there when the stars grow cold. We have lost the election, so let us maintain our determination, our dignity and our sense of humor, and let us take this moment to reflect upon how our actions have fallen short of our ideals. Then, finally, let's act like the Americans we are, roll up our sleeves and start rebuilding. We who have survived Civil War, the Nazis, and the Communists can probably manage to find a way to preserve the Republic in the face of Speaker Pelosi.
America is not only much, much stronger than you imagine; it is stronger than you CAN imagine.
To those who have written me in anger over the years, I say sincere congratulations to you on a big win, and I genuinely hope it will remove some of the bitterness in your hearts and restore some belief in a system that was never broken. As for me, I pledge to re-enter the fight with more energy, not less, and to continue to try to make the case I think needs to be made. I'll start on that tomorrow.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill
Welcome to the process of exhausting all other possibilities. This is where we separate the men from the boys. Pick a line and stand in it."
Rush Limbaugh
"Conservatism did not lose; Republicans lost last night. In fact, Republicanism, being a political party first rather than an ideological movement, is what lost. The Democrats beat something last night with nothing.
The Republican Party is going to do far better when it is openly proud and willing to define in every speech it makes what conservatism is, leading people to that movement, making them feel like there's a future, making them feel proud of themselves, making them happy to be Americans, rather than this hodgepodge: RINO Republican over there, moderate Republican here, invisible Republican over there, frightened conservative Republican over here. What this adds up to is a bunch of Republicans afraid to be who they are for fear of being criticized by the dreaded media and the social culture in Washington. So they go out of their way trying to get approval by their enemies and their opponents to show that they're not mean people, to show that they're not extremists or whatever, and you get what you got yesterday. It's just that simple. Conservatism may not win every time it's tried, but the Republican Party has no prayer when it runs as a bunch of squishy, moderate, simple Republicans.
The way I feel is this: I feel liberated, and I'm going to tell you as plainly as I can why. I no longer am going to have to carry the water for people who I don't think deserve having their water carried. Now, you might say, "Well, why have you been doing it?" Because the stakes are high. Even though the Republican Party let us down, to me they represent a far better future for my beliefs and therefore the country's than the Democrat Party and liberalism does. I believe my side is worthy of victory, and I believe it's much easier to reform things that are going wrong on my side from a position of strength. Now I'm liberated from having to constantly come in here every day and try to buck up a bunch of people who don't deserve it, to try to carry the water and make excuses for people who don't deserve it."
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
A Big Funny In Honor of Election Day
OK, since yesterday's pre-election post was all serious, here's something extremely funny that sums up how I think most average Americans really feel about election day anytime it happens (Hat Tip: Amanda's blog)...read it all, I haven't stopped laughing yet. Remember, things don't change much from politician to politician!
"A Montana cowboy was overseeing his herd in a remote mountainous pasture when suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of a dust cloud towards him. The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the cowboy, "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your herd, will you give me a calf?"
The cowboy looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, connects it to his Singular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg, Germany. Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response.
Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the cowboy and says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
"That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says the cowboy.
He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
Then the cowboy says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay, why not?"
You're a Congressman for the U.S. Government", says the cowboy.
"Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?!"
"No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked. You tried to show me how much smarter than me you are; and you don't know a thing about cows...this is a herd of sheep. Now give me back my dog!"
"A Montana cowboy was overseeing his herd in a remote mountainous pasture when suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of a dust cloud towards him. The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the cowboy, "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your herd, will you give me a calf?"
The cowboy looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, connects it to his Singular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg, Germany. Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses a MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response.
Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the cowboy and says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
"That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says the cowboy.
He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
Then the cowboy says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay, why not?"
You're a Congressman for the U.S. Government", says the cowboy.
"Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?!"
"No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked. You tried to show me how much smarter than me you are; and you don't know a thing about cows...this is a herd of sheep. Now give me back my dog!"
Monday, November 6, 2006
2006 Mid-Term Election Predictions
Tomorrow is going to be an interesting midterm election day, and it should come right down to the wire...I'm definitely curious to see how it turns out. If this election had been held when the Mark Foley scandal broke, or even a week ago, then it would have been the Democrat landslide predicted by the media for months now. My uneducated (at least in the vote prediction realm) guesses take into account the electorate's dissatisfaction with Iraq, anger from the GOP base at its party not acting like conservatives for the most part, and the GOP's superior voter turnout efforts. Forgive the length and skip it if it bores you...my feelings won't be hurt.
In terms of the House races, I've seen predictions of the GOP losing anywhere from 8-30 seats, with the Dems needing 15 to take control. The GOP will lose some seats, and this bloger believes it will be about 13 seats, with the GOP retaining a razor-thin majority. Say what you want about Karl Rove, but he hasn't been wrong in his election predictions yet...the GOP hasn't lost one with him at the helm. So, until the Dems prove him wrong, the talk of Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be put on hold.
Regarding the Senate, I just don't think the Dems have enough to take over the chamber, although, as with the House, the GOP majority will definitely shrink. Washington state is just too blue, so Maria Cantwell (D) should win re-election there by about 8 points. Ditto for Minnesota, although if this were 2004, Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) might spring the upset. Although Kennedy is the far superior candidate and Amy Klobuchar (D) is a lightweight and an empty vessel save Democrat talking points, she will probably win, and she'll likely be bounced in 2012. In New Jersey, Robert Menendez (D) and Tom Kean, Jr. (R) are in a statistical dead heat. New Jersey is also a blue state, but there has been a wave of dissatisfaction there due to oppressive taxes, etc. If anyone can win, it's Kean, Jr., because his father has a very popular name in N.J. politics, but I think Menendez, corrupt though he may be, will probably pull out a squeaker of a win (2-4 points).
Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is one of the better senators in the GOP in terms of his voting record on things like judges, taxes, illegal immigration, and national defense. Unfortunately, he represents a blue state that went to Kerry in 2004. And although his opponent Bob Casey (D) is a lightweight just like Amy Klobuchar in MN, he has a famous family name in PA politics on which to trade, and he'll likely oust Sen. Santorum for the Dems first pickup. In deep blue Maryland, Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring, and African-American Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is vying with (white) Rep. Ben Cardin (D) for the open seat. Until as late as a week ago, this was thought to be a safe Democrat seat, but Steele has picked up some major endorsements from prominent black leaders and officials, he has run a dynamite campaign, and now the race is a dead heat and the Dems are in panic mode. If Steele can get even 1/4 to 1/3 of the black vote, he will upset Cardin, and I think he pulls it off in the shocker of the election.
In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) has consistently trailed Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) throughout the campaign. DeWine is getting killed because of the GOP corruption at the state level (GOP governor) and federal level (former Rep. Bob Ney in the Abramoff scandal), and while the GOP vote turnout efforts will close the gap, he still loses, maybe by as much as 10 points. In a vicious race in Virginia, George Allen (R) has been locked in a dirty campaign with Jim Webb (D), a former Reagan Administration official. Although this race dashed any hopes Allen had of running for President in 2008, Virginia is a red state, Webb is a lightweight with his own baggage, and he'll fall short in the end, with Allen winning a little bigger than expected (6 points or so).
Missouri is also a slightly red state, where incumbent Jim Talent (R) is locked in a heated campaign with upstart Claire McCaskill (D), who has run a better than expected campaign, including the Michael J. Fox commercials, which played fast and loose with the truth at best. McCaskill may get within a point or two, but Talent will win a close one. In Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee (RINO) has close the gap on Sheldon Whitehouse (D), and in truth, I really don't care who wins this one because the votes will be almost identical, so I think Whitehouse wins a close one and no one cares unless the balance of the Senate hangs on the result, in which case the GOP is dead anyway. Pres. Bush took Montana by about 20 points in 2004, and Jon Tester (D) has run a reasonably mistake-free race against incumbent Conrad Burns (R), who is hurt by his ties to the Abramoff scandal. It could go either way and it wouldn't surprise me, b/c Montana already has one Democrat senator, but I don't think it's ready for two, so take Burns in a mild upset to keep the seat.
Finally, in Tennessee, it's Harold Ford, Jr. (D) vs. Bob Corker (R). Let me start by saying that if I had my choice of anyone from the primaries, it would be Rep Ed Bryant (R), but he lost to Corker, so that isn't a possibility. This race has gotten testy as the weeks went on, with personal attacks akin to those in VA (neither of which have any place in politics) and overhyped accusations of racism against Corker. As Democrats go, Ford is not terrible, nothing like Nancy Pelosi and her ilk anyway. His votes on illegal immigration and some other important issues were correct, but he's still a bit too fond of high taxes for most TN voters. Also, I think his crashing of one of Corker's press conferences reflected very poorly on him as a professional. Corker reminds a lot of people of Bill Frist, a solid Republican without much in the way of passion, etc. If this election were in 2008, I think Ford would win going away, but this year, Corker will eke out a close win, no more than a point or two.
So, per the split and polarization of voters nationwide, in the House, the GOP should have something like a 220-215 or 219-216 majority, and the Senate should go about 52-48 or 51-49 in favor of the GOP.
In terms of the House races, I've seen predictions of the GOP losing anywhere from 8-30 seats, with the Dems needing 15 to take control. The GOP will lose some seats, and this bloger believes it will be about 13 seats, with the GOP retaining a razor-thin majority. Say what you want about Karl Rove, but he hasn't been wrong in his election predictions yet...the GOP hasn't lost one with him at the helm. So, until the Dems prove him wrong, the talk of Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be put on hold.
Regarding the Senate, I just don't think the Dems have enough to take over the chamber, although, as with the House, the GOP majority will definitely shrink. Washington state is just too blue, so Maria Cantwell (D) should win re-election there by about 8 points. Ditto for Minnesota, although if this were 2004, Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) might spring the upset. Although Kennedy is the far superior candidate and Amy Klobuchar (D) is a lightweight and an empty vessel save Democrat talking points, she will probably win, and she'll likely be bounced in 2012. In New Jersey, Robert Menendez (D) and Tom Kean, Jr. (R) are in a statistical dead heat. New Jersey is also a blue state, but there has been a wave of dissatisfaction there due to oppressive taxes, etc. If anyone can win, it's Kean, Jr., because his father has a very popular name in N.J. politics, but I think Menendez, corrupt though he may be, will probably pull out a squeaker of a win (2-4 points).
Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) is one of the better senators in the GOP in terms of his voting record on things like judges, taxes, illegal immigration, and national defense. Unfortunately, he represents a blue state that went to Kerry in 2004. And although his opponent Bob Casey (D) is a lightweight just like Amy Klobuchar in MN, he has a famous family name in PA politics on which to trade, and he'll likely oust Sen. Santorum for the Dems first pickup. In deep blue Maryland, Paul Sarbanes (D) is retiring, and African-American Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is vying with (white) Rep. Ben Cardin (D) for the open seat. Until as late as a week ago, this was thought to be a safe Democrat seat, but Steele has picked up some major endorsements from prominent black leaders and officials, he has run a dynamite campaign, and now the race is a dead heat and the Dems are in panic mode. If Steele can get even 1/4 to 1/3 of the black vote, he will upset Cardin, and I think he pulls it off in the shocker of the election.
In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) has consistently trailed Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) throughout the campaign. DeWine is getting killed because of the GOP corruption at the state level (GOP governor) and federal level (former Rep. Bob Ney in the Abramoff scandal), and while the GOP vote turnout efforts will close the gap, he still loses, maybe by as much as 10 points. In a vicious race in Virginia, George Allen (R) has been locked in a dirty campaign with Jim Webb (D), a former Reagan Administration official. Although this race dashed any hopes Allen had of running for President in 2008, Virginia is a red state, Webb is a lightweight with his own baggage, and he'll fall short in the end, with Allen winning a little bigger than expected (6 points or so).
Missouri is also a slightly red state, where incumbent Jim Talent (R) is locked in a heated campaign with upstart Claire McCaskill (D), who has run a better than expected campaign, including the Michael J. Fox commercials, which played fast and loose with the truth at best. McCaskill may get within a point or two, but Talent will win a close one. In Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee (RINO) has close the gap on Sheldon Whitehouse (D), and in truth, I really don't care who wins this one because the votes will be almost identical, so I think Whitehouse wins a close one and no one cares unless the balance of the Senate hangs on the result, in which case the GOP is dead anyway. Pres. Bush took Montana by about 20 points in 2004, and Jon Tester (D) has run a reasonably mistake-free race against incumbent Conrad Burns (R), who is hurt by his ties to the Abramoff scandal. It could go either way and it wouldn't surprise me, b/c Montana already has one Democrat senator, but I don't think it's ready for two, so take Burns in a mild upset to keep the seat.
Finally, in Tennessee, it's Harold Ford, Jr. (D) vs. Bob Corker (R). Let me start by saying that if I had my choice of anyone from the primaries, it would be Rep Ed Bryant (R), but he lost to Corker, so that isn't a possibility. This race has gotten testy as the weeks went on, with personal attacks akin to those in VA (neither of which have any place in politics) and overhyped accusations of racism against Corker. As Democrats go, Ford is not terrible, nothing like Nancy Pelosi and her ilk anyway. His votes on illegal immigration and some other important issues were correct, but he's still a bit too fond of high taxes for most TN voters. Also, I think his crashing of one of Corker's press conferences reflected very poorly on him as a professional. Corker reminds a lot of people of Bill Frist, a solid Republican without much in the way of passion, etc. If this election were in 2008, I think Ford would win going away, but this year, Corker will eke out a close win, no more than a point or two.
So, per the split and polarization of voters nationwide, in the House, the GOP should have something like a 220-215 or 219-216 majority, and the Senate should go about 52-48 or 51-49 in favor of the GOP.
Sunday, November 5, 2006
Saddam Hussein, The Bell Tolls for Thee...and for UT
An Iraqi court today found deposed dictator, murderer, and torturer Saddam Hussein guillty of crimes against humanity. Although there is a mandatory appeals process for all death sentences in the new Iraq, it looks like he will ultimately be hanged for his crimes. No matter your feelings on the war, this is a day of justice for the victims of his merciless crimes. Pajamas Media has one of the better roundups in the blogosphere of the news of and worldwide reaction to Saddam's verdict and sentence. My favorite part...? Even the biased MSM says he was "visibly shaken"...I hope he lives every moment of the rest of his miserable life in utter fear, because after the life he has led and the lives he has ended, the hangman's noose will feel like a motherly hug compared to that which awaits him in the afterlife. Read it all, especially the Prime Minister of Iraq's statement, which I have excerpted below.
"The days of Saddam and tyranny is over. These are the days of rules of law. No sector will have supremacy over another….Saddam's crimes belong to no sector and the track record of his regime is a disgrace in history of those who have inflicted pain on the Iraqi people all over the sountry. We are surprised that anybody calls for the release of a dictator since it is the Iraqi court that decides fates."
As for the weekend in Tennessee football, my prediction for UT to lose a heartbreak to the Tigers was spot on. In losing on a TD pass with 9 seconds left, which is tough for anyone, the bell tolled on their national championship and SEC title hopes for the year. In this case, it wasn't that the refs screwed them, it wasn't bad weather, or anything else for that matter. They just went toe-to-toe with a very good LSU football team and came up short for the same reasons the Vols almost always come up short when it matters...inability to run the football in crunch time against great defenses, inability to get off the field on third down, playing a prevent defense with the game on the line, and, as always, the lack of killer instinct needed to put away teams on the ropes. Backup QB Jonathan Crompton played a fine ballgame for a redhsirt freshman after Erik Ainge went down, but he can't do it all on his own. As for the Titans, just an absolute train wreck...QB Vince Young threw three embarrassingly easy INTs, two of them returned for touchdowns. The Titans looked badly overmatched in just about every area of the game, and at this rate, it may be 2008 before they even sniff .500 again.
"The days of Saddam and tyranny is over. These are the days of rules of law. No sector will have supremacy over another….Saddam's crimes belong to no sector and the track record of his regime is a disgrace in history of those who have inflicted pain on the Iraqi people all over the sountry. We are surprised that anybody calls for the release of a dictator since it is the Iraqi court that decides fates."
As for the weekend in Tennessee football, my prediction for UT to lose a heartbreak to the Tigers was spot on. In losing on a TD pass with 9 seconds left, which is tough for anyone, the bell tolled on their national championship and SEC title hopes for the year. In this case, it wasn't that the refs screwed them, it wasn't bad weather, or anything else for that matter. They just went toe-to-toe with a very good LSU football team and came up short for the same reasons the Vols almost always come up short when it matters...inability to run the football in crunch time against great defenses, inability to get off the field on third down, playing a prevent defense with the game on the line, and, as always, the lack of killer instinct needed to put away teams on the ropes. Backup QB Jonathan Crompton played a fine ballgame for a redhsirt freshman after Erik Ainge went down, but he can't do it all on his own. As for the Titans, just an absolute train wreck...QB Vince Young threw three embarrassingly easy INTs, two of them returned for touchdowns. The Titans looked badly overmatched in just about every area of the game, and at this rate, it may be 2008 before they even sniff .500 again.
Saturday, November 4, 2006
November Football Separates the Men From the Boys
I don't know if it's a trend, but the NFL has gone the past couple of weeks having more big-time, upper tier games than the NCAA. Not to say there aren't some meaningful and exciting college games, especially the Louisville-W. Virginia slugfest from Thursday night, it's just that the last couple of weekends there have been more games in the NFL with intriguing matchups where I think, "Man, I really want to see that game." I am skipping playing my weekly football pool this week because I've really stunk up the joint the last couple of weeks with all the upsets (haven't even broken .500 two weeks straight), so I could use a break. OK, now on with the picks...
NCAA
Florida vs Vanderbilt- Florida has the worst part of its schedule over and came out of it better than anyone could have imagined at 7-1...all they have to do is win out and the SEC East is theirs. It'll be tough, but I think they'll get by South Carolina and Steve Spurrier next week and Vanderbilt this week. The game is in Nashville, and Vandy QB Chris Nickson is more mobile than Jay Cutler, but he doesn't have Cutler's arm and makes more mistakes. Figure on a couple of killer interceptions thrown by Nickson, a solid defensive effort by the Florida D, and just enough Gator offense to walk out of Nashville with a close win...Gators 28-21.
Florida Atlantic vs. MTSU- Florida Atlantic has a better than average Sun Belt defense and a below average offense. MTSU has a good enough run D to shut down FAU and should muster enough offense to win...I just don't think the Blue Raiders will be beaten in Murfreesboro, not by this team this time...take the Blue Raiders here, 20-9.
LSU vs. Tennessee- I've gone back and forth on this game all week, and it mostly depends on how Erik Ainge's ankle holds up and who wins the turnover battle. LSU has one of the top defenses in the country, and UT has had real trouble mustering a running game against top-flight competition without LaMarcus Coker, who is still out. I want UT to win, I think they have the athletes for it, I wouldn't be surprised if they did win, and it is at home in Knoxville, but I just can't pick them. They've looked subpar the last couple of weeks, and they couldn't get it done against Florida when it mattered most, so until they prove they can, I have to pick against them...LSU 19, UT 17...in a heartbreaker.
NFL
Baltimore at Cincinnati- Steve McNair has been just plain lucky this season, catching more breaks this season with the Ravens than all his Titans seasons combined. The Ravens' D comes and goes, but their secondary is consistently vulnerable. Carson Palmer is a better QB than McNair, and the Bengals receivers are better top to bottom than the Ravens' secondary. Look for Chad Johnson to be mostly clamped down, but the other receivers should have a big day if Palmer can keep his jersey clean. With the home crowd behind them, the Bengals take control of the AFC North with a hard fought 23-16 win.
Titans at Jaguars- Vince Young is getting better by the week even though his numbers aren't so great. What matters is he has led the team to consecutive victories with a chance for 3 in a row. The Jags are very banged up on D and have a mini-QB controversy as David Garrard starts for a second week in a row. This should be a fun and interesting game, but unless Fred Taylor plays like he did last week or the Titans commit a bunch of turnovers, the Titans should win in a mild upset, 27-21.
Denver vs. Pittsburgh- Denver's D got carved up by Peyton and the Colts last week, but they should rebound nicely against the Steelers struggling offense. Also, the Denver power running game stepped up nicely to provide a compliment to Tatum Bell, so look for more power runs this week. The Pittsburgh D has been playing well enough to win, but the offense keeps them on the field too long by not making enough plays. It's at Heinz Field so it will be close, but the Broncos are just too good to lose to this version of the Steelers. Denver puts a nail in the Steelers playoff coffin, Broncos 30, Steelers 21.
Colts at Patriots- This game in Foxboro is the Week 9 version of the Colts-Broncos showdown for AFC supremacy from last week. I know the Colts won here last year and that Peyton has looked great all season, but after the way the Pats demolished the Vikings on Monday night passing and the way Denver ran the ball down the Colts' throat last week, it's going to be a looooong day for the Indy D. The Pats might rush for 200 yards between Maroney and Dillon, and add that to Tom Brady's pinpoint passing and that leaves Manning on the sidelines most of the game. The Patriots should win here, but it's no surprise if these teams meet again in the playoffs, Patriots win this one and avenge last year's loss at home, Pats 34, Colts 27.
NCAA
Florida vs Vanderbilt- Florida has the worst part of its schedule over and came out of it better than anyone could have imagined at 7-1...all they have to do is win out and the SEC East is theirs. It'll be tough, but I think they'll get by South Carolina and Steve Spurrier next week and Vanderbilt this week. The game is in Nashville, and Vandy QB Chris Nickson is more mobile than Jay Cutler, but he doesn't have Cutler's arm and makes more mistakes. Figure on a couple of killer interceptions thrown by Nickson, a solid defensive effort by the Florida D, and just enough Gator offense to walk out of Nashville with a close win...Gators 28-21.
Florida Atlantic vs. MTSU- Florida Atlantic has a better than average Sun Belt defense and a below average offense. MTSU has a good enough run D to shut down FAU and should muster enough offense to win...I just don't think the Blue Raiders will be beaten in Murfreesboro, not by this team this time...take the Blue Raiders here, 20-9.
LSU vs. Tennessee- I've gone back and forth on this game all week, and it mostly depends on how Erik Ainge's ankle holds up and who wins the turnover battle. LSU has one of the top defenses in the country, and UT has had real trouble mustering a running game against top-flight competition without LaMarcus Coker, who is still out. I want UT to win, I think they have the athletes for it, I wouldn't be surprised if they did win, and it is at home in Knoxville, but I just can't pick them. They've looked subpar the last couple of weeks, and they couldn't get it done against Florida when it mattered most, so until they prove they can, I have to pick against them...LSU 19, UT 17...in a heartbreaker.
NFL
Baltimore at Cincinnati- Steve McNair has been just plain lucky this season, catching more breaks this season with the Ravens than all his Titans seasons combined. The Ravens' D comes and goes, but their secondary is consistently vulnerable. Carson Palmer is a better QB than McNair, and the Bengals receivers are better top to bottom than the Ravens' secondary. Look for Chad Johnson to be mostly clamped down, but the other receivers should have a big day if Palmer can keep his jersey clean. With the home crowd behind them, the Bengals take control of the AFC North with a hard fought 23-16 win.
Titans at Jaguars- Vince Young is getting better by the week even though his numbers aren't so great. What matters is he has led the team to consecutive victories with a chance for 3 in a row. The Jags are very banged up on D and have a mini-QB controversy as David Garrard starts for a second week in a row. This should be a fun and interesting game, but unless Fred Taylor plays like he did last week or the Titans commit a bunch of turnovers, the Titans should win in a mild upset, 27-21.
Denver vs. Pittsburgh- Denver's D got carved up by Peyton and the Colts last week, but they should rebound nicely against the Steelers struggling offense. Also, the Denver power running game stepped up nicely to provide a compliment to Tatum Bell, so look for more power runs this week. The Pittsburgh D has been playing well enough to win, but the offense keeps them on the field too long by not making enough plays. It's at Heinz Field so it will be close, but the Broncos are just too good to lose to this version of the Steelers. Denver puts a nail in the Steelers playoff coffin, Broncos 30, Steelers 21.
Colts at Patriots- This game in Foxboro is the Week 9 version of the Colts-Broncos showdown for AFC supremacy from last week. I know the Colts won here last year and that Peyton has looked great all season, but after the way the Pats demolished the Vikings on Monday night passing and the way Denver ran the ball down the Colts' throat last week, it's going to be a looooong day for the Indy D. The Pats might rush for 200 yards between Maroney and Dillon, and add that to Tom Brady's pinpoint passing and that leaves Manning on the sidelines most of the game. The Patriots should win here, but it's no surprise if these teams meet again in the playoffs, Patriots win this one and avenge last year's loss at home, Pats 34, Colts 27.
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